Abstract
Objective
Methods
Results
Conclusions
Keywords
Abbreviations
ACTH
AIC
AUC
BMI
CD
CI
CRH
DFS
DL
eTSS
HR
IPSS
ML
MRI
OS
PoRP-CD
SIADH
TSS
UFC
Introduction
Methods
Study design, patients, and endpoints
Preoperative assessments
Surgical approach
Postoperative assessments
Statistical analysis
Model development and internal validation
Nomogram creation and deployment
Survival analysis
Results
Patients and tumors characteristics
Table 1. Baseline characteristics of adult and pediatric patients with Cushing’s disease.
| Demographics | Total n = 211 |
Adults n = 190 |
Pediatrics n = 21 |
P | Medical Hx | Total n = 211 |
Adults n = 190 |
Ped. n = 21 |
P | Drug-Family Hx | Total n = 211 |
Adults n = 190 |
Ped. n = 21 |
P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age; mean-SD (y) | 35.9–12.1 | 38.3–10.2 | 14.8–1.7 | 0<.001 | Hypertension | 97 (45.9) | 92 (48.4) | 5 (23.8) | 0.31 | Cabergoline | 3 (1.4) | 3 (1.5) | 0 | 1.0 |
| Sex; female | 165 (78.1) a | 149 (78.4) | 16 (76.1) | 0.78 | Diabetes mellitus | 71 (33.6) | 70 (36.8) | 1 (4.7) | 0<.001 | Ketoconazole | 12 (5.6) | 12 (6.3) | 0 | 0.61 |
| Marital status; married | 105 (70.0) b | 103 (76.8) b | 2 (12.5) b | 0<.001 | Dyslipidemia | 45 (21.3) | 42 (22.1) | 3 (14.2) | 0.56 | Metyrapone | 0 | − | − | − |
| Smoking status; active–passive-non | 17 (10)-27(17)-113(72) b | 17 (11)–23(15)-101(70) b | 0–4(25)-12(75) b | 0.70 | Prior pituitary surgery | 57 (27.0)) | 51 (26.8) | 6 (28.5) | 1.0 | Pasireotide | 0 | − | − | − |
| Height; mean-SD (cm) | 163.9–8.7 | 163.8–8.9 | 165.1–6.6 | 0.59 | Fatty liver | 37 (17.5) | 32 (16.8) | 5 (23.8) | 0.36 | Somatostatin | 0 | − | − | − |
| Weight; mean-SD (Kg) | 74.1–22.5 | 74.6–22.5 | 69.3–23.1 | 0.58 | Thromboembolism | 6 (2.8) | 6 (3.1) | 0 | 1.0 | |||||
| BMI; mean-SD (Kg/m2) | 28.8–6.1 | 29.0–6.2 | 27.6–5.5 | 0.72 | DVT | 3 (1.4) | 3 (1.5) | 0 | 1.0 | FH of Cushing | 5 (2.3) | 4 (2.1) | 1 (4.7) | 0.43 |
| Symptom duration; mean-SD (m) | 30.7–41.2 | 32.0–43.2 | 20.0–14.2 | 0.78 | MEN | 1 (0.4) | 1 (0.5) | 0 | 1.0 | FH of MEN | 1 (0.4) | 1 (0.5) | 0 | 1.0 |
| Presenting Symptoms | ||||||||||||||
| Obesity | 75 (45.9) b | 66 (45.2) b | 9 (52.9) b | 0.61 | Striae | 10 (6.1) b | 8 (5.4) b | 2 (11.7) b | 0.27 | Headache | 4 (2.4) b | 3 (2.0) b | 1 (5.8) b | 0.35 |
| Menstrual disorders | 16 (9.8) b | 13 (8.9) b | 3 (17.6) b | 0.22 | Edema | 7 (4.2) b | 7 (4.7) b | 0 | 1.0 | Diabetes mellitus | 3 (1.8) b | 3 (2.0) b | 0 | 1.0 |
| Hypertension | 12 (7.3) b | 12 (8.2) b | 0 | 0.61 | Muscular weakness | 7 (4.2) b | 6 (4.1) b | 1 (5.8) b | 0.54 | Bone fracture | 3 (1.8) b | 3 (2.0) b | 0 | 1.0 |
| Blurred vision | 10 (6.1) b | 9 (6.1) b | 1 (5.8) b | 1.0 | Moon face | 6 (3.6) b | 6 (4.1) b | 0 | 1.0 | Other | 10 (6.1) b | 10 (6.8) b | 0 | 0.60 |
| Clinical Manifestations | ||||||||||||||
| Acanthosis nigricans | 35 (16.5) | 34 (17.8) | 1 (4.7) | 0.12 | Easy bruising | 103 (48.8) | 92 (48.4) | 11 (52.3) | 0.91 | Male pat. hair loss | 111 (52.6) | 100 (52.6) | 11 (52.3) | 1.0 |
| Acne | 68 (32.2) | 58 (30.5) | 10 (47.6) | 0.16 | Ecchymosis | 58 (27.5) | 50 (26.3) | 8 (38.0) | 0.37 | dysmenorrhea | 96 (45.4) | 84 (44.2) | 12 (57.1) | 0.49 |
| Ankle edema | 105 (49.7) | 96 (50.5) | 9 (42.8) | 0.57 | Exophthalmia | 50 (23.7) | 47 (24.7) | 3 (14.2) | 0.27 | Moon face | 160 (75.8) | 141 (74.2) | 19 (90.4) | 0.69 |
| Backache | 66 (31.2) | 60 (31.5) | 6 (28.5) | 0.88 | Facial plethora | 97 (45.9) | 85 (44.7) | 12 (57.1) | 0.33 | Osteoporosis | 25 (11.8) | 25 (13.1) | 0 | 0.14 |
| Blurred vision | 70 (33.2) | 67 (35.2) | 3 (14.2) | 0.27 | Fatigue | 146 (69.2) | 130 (68) | 16 (76.1) | 0.76 | Prox. myopathy | 94 (44.5) | 86 (45.2) | 8 (38.0) | 0.63 |
| Buffalo hump | 123 (58.3) | 107 (56.3) | 16 (76.1) | 0.43 | Fracture | 12 (5.6) | 12 (6.3) | 0 | 0.61 | Skin atrophy | 81 (38.4) | 73 (38.4) | 8 (38.0) | 1.0 |
| Centripetal obesity | 178 (84.3) | 159 (83.6) | 19 (90.4) | 0.50 | Headache | 109 (51.6) | 97 (51.0) | 12 (57.1) | 1.0 | Striae | 136 (64.4) | 119 (62.6) | 17 (80.9) | 0.55 |
| Cerebrospinal fluid leakage | 5 (2.3) | 4 (2.1) | 1 (4.7) | 0.41 | Hirsutism | 104 (49.3) | 92 (48.4) | 12 (57.1) | 0.72 | Supraclav. fat pad | 38 (18.0) | 33 (17.3) | 5 (23.8) | 0.67 |
| Cranial nerve palsy | 3 (1.4) | 3 (1.5) | 0 | 1.0 | Hyperpigmentation | 38 (18.0) | 37 (19.4) | 1 (4.7) | 0.12 | Visual field defect | 24 (11.3) | 22 (11.5) | 2 (9.5) | 1.0 |
| Diplopia | 18 (8.5) | 15 (7.8) | 3 (14.2) | 0.41 | Hypertension | 69 (32.7) | 67 (35.2) | 2 (9.5) | 0.009 | Weight gain | 108 (51.1) | 95 (50.0) | 13 (61.9) | 0.39 |
| Prior Treatments | ||||||||||||||
| Treatment naïve | 135 (63.9) | 122 (64.2) | 13 (61.9) | 1.0 | Pituitary surgery alone | 39 (18.4) | 33 (17.3) | 6 (28.5) | 0.23 | Radiotherapy alone | 6 (2.8) | 5 (2.6) | 1 (4.7) | 0.47 |
| Medication alone | 5 (2.3) | 5 (2.6) | 0 | 1.0 | Combination therapy | 17 (8.1) | 17 (8.9) | 0 | 0.22 | Adrenalectomy alone | 11 (5.2) | 10 (5.2) | 1 (4.7) | 1.0 |
| Hormonal Assessments | ||||||||||||||
| Hypothyroidism | 24 (31.1) b | 24 (31.1) b | 0 | 0.09 | GH deficiency | 6 (8.8) b | 6 (8.8) b | 0 | 1.0 | Hypogonadism | 7 (9.8) b | 7 (9.8) b | 0 | 1.0 |
| Panhypopituitarism | 2 (2.5) b | 2 (2.5) b | 0 | 1.0 | ||||||||||
| Imaging Features | ||||||||||||||
| Hardy’s grading (sphenoid bone invasion) 0 1 2 3 4 |
37 (21.1) b 102 (58.2) b 27 (15.4) b 4 (2.2) b 5 (2.8) b |
35 (22.7) b 88 (57.1) b 23 (14.9) b 3 (1.9) b 5 (3.2) b |
2 (9.5) 14 (66.7) 4 (19.0) 1 (4.7) 0 |
0.45 | Hardy’s staging (suprasellar extension) A B C D E |
36 (20.4) b 86 (48.8) b 14 (7.9) b 4 (2.2) b 36 (20.4) b |
34 (21.9) b 73 (47.1) b 14 (9.0) b 2 (1.2) b 32 (20.6) b |
2 (9.5) 13 (62) 0 2 (9.5) 4 (19.0) |
0.07 | Knosp grading
0 |
152 (82.6) b 13 (7.0) b 7 (3.8) b 4 (2.1) b 8 (4.3) b |
135 (82.8) b 10 (6.1) b 6 (3.6) b 4 (2.4) b 8 (4.9) b |
17 (80.9) 3 (14.2) 1 (4.7) 0 0 |
0.46 |
| Tumor size Microadenoma Macroadenoma MR-negative |
122 (58.6) b 50 (24.0) b 36 17.3) b |
111 (59.3) b 42 (22.4) b 34 (18.1) b |
11 (52.3) 8 (38.0) 2 (9.5) |
0.28 | Sphenoid shape Sellar Presellar Conchal |
205 (97.6) b 3 (1.4) b 2 (0.9) b |
184 (97.3) b 3 (1.5) b 2 (1.0) b |
21 (100) 0 0 |
1.0 | Multifocality Unifocal Multifocal |
113 (80.1) 28 (19.8) |
97 (79.5) 25 (20.4) |
16(84.2) 3 (15.7) |
0.79 |
| Invasion c No invasion Cavernous sinus Carotid Dura Clivus |
185 (88.5) b 12 (5.7) b 3 (1.4) b 6 (2.8) b 3 (1.4) b |
165 (87.7) b 11 (5.8) b 3 (1.5) b 6 (3.1) b 3 (1.5) b |
20 (95.2) b 1 (4.8) b 0 0 0 |
1.0 | Tumor site Right lobe Left lobe Bilateral Central Stalk |
22 (15.6)) b 16 (11.3)) b 51 (36.1) b 49 (34.7) b 3 (2.1) b |
20 (16.2) b 13 (10.5) b 43 (34.9) b 45 (36.5) b 2 (1.6) b |
2 (11.1) b 3 (16.6) b 8 (44.4) b 4 (22.2) b 1 (5.5) b |
0.38 | Empty sella No Yes |
207 (98.1) 4 (1.8) |
187 (98.4) 3 (1.5) |
20(95.2) 1 (4.7) |
0.34 |
| Pituitary apoplexy No Yes |
185 (97.3) b 5 (2.6) b |
167 (98.2) b 3 (1.7) b |
18 (90.0) b 2 (10.0) b |
0.08 | Kissing carotids No Yes |
209 (99.0) 2 (0.9) |
188 (98.9) 2 (1.0) |
21 (100) 0 |
1.0 | |||||
- a
-
the numbers in parentheses represent the percentage for each patient group.
- b
-
percentage after ruling out missing data.
- c
-
one patient had invasion to cavernous sinus and carotid and another one had clivus and dural invasion.
Treatment details and outcomes
Fig. 1. Rates of surgical complications. (a) Intraoperative complications; (b) hormonal dysregulation rates following surgery.
Multivariate analysis on the predictors of Persistent/Recurrent Cushing’s disease
Table 2. Regression analysis of patient and tumor’s factors related to postoperative persistence or recurrence in Cushing disease.
| Parameters | Univariate Analysis | Multivariate Analysis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR (95 % CI) | P | OR (95 % CI) | P | |
| Age | 0.97 (0.94–1.01) | 0.23 | ||
| Sex (male vs. female) | 1.17 (0.39–3.50) | 0.77 | ||
| Smoking (active smoker vs. non) | 0.78 (0.65–10.28) | 0.77 | ||
| Family history of CD (positive vs. negative) | 0.01 (0–Inf) | 0.99 | ||
| Family history of MEN (positive vs. negative) | 0.01 (0–Inf) | 0.99 | ||
| Preoperative BMI | 1.03 (0.94–1.13) | 0.43 | ||
| Symptom duration | 1.01 (1.00–1.02) | 0.04 ** | 1.03 (1.01–1.06) | 0.01 ** |
| Preop serum ACTH (high vs. normal) | 0.88 (0.13–6.00) | 0.90 | ||
| Preop free serum cortisol (high vs. normal) | 1.18 (0.40–3.45) | 0.74 | ||
| Preop urine free cortisol (high vs. normal) | 0.15 (0.01–2.98) | 0.21 | ||
| Knosp grading (ref: grade 0) | 1.41 (0.93–2.15) | 0.10 * | 1.56 (0.61–3.97) | 0.34 |
| Hardy’s grading (ref: grade 0) | 1.62 (0.98–2.69) | 0.05 ** | 1.98 (0.54–7.21) | 0.29 |
| Hardy’s staging (ref: stage A) | 2.97 (0.61–14.38) | 0.17 | ||
| Tumor size Macro vs. no tumor Micro vs. no tumor |
4.15 (0.80–21.42) 2.41 (0.50–11.53) |
0.17 | ||
| Multifocality (multifocal vs. unifocal) | 1.68 (0.44–6.42) | 0.44 | ||
| MR-based tumor sitea Bilateral vs. central Left vs. central Right vs. central Stalk vs. central |
0.16 (0.01–1.53) 0.82 (0.18–4.40) 0.49 (0.09–2.82) 5.33 (0.37–144.16) |
0.14 * | 0.34 (0.02–3.95) 0.23 (0.01–3.12) 5.36 (0.19–146.38)
|
0.03 ** 0.39 0.27 0.31 |
| Invasion (pos. vs. neg.) | 1.18 (0.31–4.51) | 0.80 | ||
| Surgical approach (transplanum vs. eTSS) | 6.21 (0.37–103.55) | 0.20 | ||
| Surgical type (adenomectomy vs. hypophysectomy) | 1.55 (0.46–5.22) | 0.47 | ||
| Histopathology Dense type vs. Crooke’s cell adenoma Normal appearing vs. Crooke’s cell adenoma Sparse type vs. Crooke’s cell adenoma |
2.00 (0.09–69.06) 0.80 (0.04–23.23) 0.28 (0.01–9.45) |
0.56 | ||
| Ki-67 (>3% vs. ≤ 3 %) | 1.34 (0.14–12.64) | 0.79 | ||
| Previous pituitary surgery (yes vs. no) | 3.56 (1.39–9.07) | 0.007 ** | 4.67 (1.04–20.89) | 0.04 ** |
| Previous pituitary radiotherapy (yes vs. no) | 3.36 (0.89–12.62) | 0.07 * | 3.63 (0.28–46.07) | 0.31 |
| Postop decrease in BMI | 0.90 (0.73–1.03) | 0.22 | ||
Predicting persistent or recurrent Cushing’s disease–The CuPeR nomogram
Fig. 2. Nomogram for predicting postoperative persistence or recurrence of Cushing’s disease (PoRP-CD). This nomogram visually represents the predictive model for assessing the risk of recurrence or persistence of Cushing’s disease following surgery. Each predictor variable—Symptom duration (months), Knosp grading, Hardy’s grading, previous pituitary surgery, and tumor site— contributes a point value that aligns with the “Linear Predictor” scale, which maps to the “Probability of Persistence” scale, allowing estimation of recurrence likelihood.
Survival analysis
Fig. 3. Disease-free survival (DFS) analysis. (A) Kaplan-Meier curve of DFS for the entire cohort, showing a gradual decline over time; (B) DFS stratified by Hardy’s Grade, demonstrating significant impact of grade 3 on survival outcomes (P = 0.03); (C) DFS by tumor site, highlighting no significant association between tumor site and survival care (P > 0.05); (D) DFS based on previous surgery status, indicating a higher risk of recurrence or death in patients with prior surgical interventions (P < 0.01); (E) DFS by symptom duration, highlighting no significant association (P = 0.57).
Discussion
Table 3. Studies on predictive models or patients and tumors predictive factors of post-operative remission of Cushing’s disease.
| Empty Cell | Year | Country | Study Size | Methods | Main Findings | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictive Models | ||||||
| Comprising 8 factors: age, disease coarse, morning serum ACTH (preop), morning serum cortisol (preop), urine free cortisol (preop), morning serum ACTH nadir (postop), morning serum cortisol nadir (postop), urine free cortisol nadir (postop) |
2019 | China | 354 | Machine-learning using Random Forest algorithm | Sensitivity 87 %, specificity 58 % AUC 0.78 |
[6] |
| Comprising 5 factors: age, disease coarse, morning serum ACTH (postop), morning serum cortisol nadir (postop), urine free cortisol nadir (postop) |
2021 | China | 354 | Deep-learning using factorization‑machine based neural approach | AUC 0.86 | [7] |
| Predictive Factors | ||||||
| Serum cortisol < 35 nmol/L (6–12 w after surgery) | 1993 | UK | 11 | Prospective | Favorable long-term remission rate | [15] |
| Serum 11-deoxycortisol > 150 nmol/L after metyrapone test at 14 days post-surgery | 1997 | Netherlands | 29 | Retrospective | Higher risk of recurrence Sensitivity 100 %, specificity 75 % |
[16] |
| Serum cortisol < 2 μ/dL (3–8 d after surgery) | 2001 | Japan | 49 | Retrospective | Recurrent disease in 4 % of patients | [17] |
| MRI-based tumor size and cavernous sinus invasion | 2003 | Italy | 26 | Retrospective | Unfavorable factors of persistent disease | [18] |
| No histological evidence of adenoma | 2007 | US | 490 | Retrospective | Lower remission rate | [19] |
| Long-term hypocortisolism after surgery (≥13 m) | 2017 | India | 230 | Retrospective | Favorable for remission Sensitivity 46 %, specificity 100 % |
[20] |
| Greater decrease in BMI after surgery Lower DHEAS before surgery |
2017 | Taiwan | 41 | Retrospective | Favorable factors for higher remission | [21] |
| High serum ACTH/cortisol ratio before surgery | 2018 | Turkey | 119 | Retrospective | Risk factor for disease recurrence | [22] |
| USP8 mutation | 2018 | Germany | 48 | Retrospective | Higher recurrence rate | [23] |
| Serum cortisol < 107 nmol/L after betamethasone suppression test following surgery | 2018 | Sweden | 28 | Interventional | Sensitivity 85 %, specificity 94 % AUC 0.92 |
[24] |
| Tumor visualization on MRI before surgery | 2022 | Spain | 40 | Retrospective | Favorable factor for remission | [25] |
Conclusions
Funding details
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Informed consent
Declaration of competing interest
Acknowledgements
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214623725000353
Filed under: Cushing's, pituitary, symptoms, Treatments | Tagged: Cushing's Disease, pituitary, post-op, The CuPeR Model | Leave a comment »



